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Accession number;07A0041924
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| Title;Predictability of Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Tropical Atmosphere |
| Author;
KUBOTA TAKUJI
(Osaka Prefecture Univ., Graduate School of Engineering, JPN)
()
()
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Journal Title;Abstracts for Annuals. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (CD-ROM)
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Journal Code:S0431B
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ISSN:
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VOL.;NO.49;PAGE.NO.49B,411-421(2006)
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| Figure&Table&Reference;FIG.14, REF.17 |
| Pub. Country;Japan |
| Language;Japanese |
| Abstract;In order to examine dynamical predictability of the intraseasonal variability in the tropics, we devise a new breeding method for initial perturbations appropriate to the ensemble forecast of the intraseasonal variability in the tropics using the operational numerical weather forecast system of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The obtained initial perturbations have spatial structure similar to the east-ward propagating dry Kelvin wave with phase speed of 30 m/s. The growth rate of the perturbation is very small compared with the baroclinic instability in the extratropics. These results imply marginally unstable properties of the intraseasonal variability in the tropics. (author abst.) |
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